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US Stock Indices - Short-Term Outlook

In these updates our focus is to identify the trend on the daily chart - the so-called Short-Term (ST) trend (this trend usually lasts several weeks to several months) and to formulate a hypothetical trading strategy that usually seeks for 60-120 point moves in the indexes risking 30-50 points. This analysis is updated once per week: before the open each Monday (usually during the weekends). If necessary, additional updates may be posted during the trading week.



Nasdaq 100
S&P500

Main analysis


Update for: 2012-02-06 - 2012-02-12

Posted on: Sunday, 05 February 2012 16:36

sp500 st 20120205



S&P500: 1344.59

Short-Term Trend: uptrend

Outlook:

Our bullish analysis remains intact and further gains twd 1378 are expected this week. Last week however, I overestimated the importance of the 1305 level. I thought that if the market was to break below there, we would have a signal that a pullback was under way. The market fell below 1305 last Monday but did never close below that level. So, the bullish uptrend remains as strong as before.
Only a decline below 1300 will shift the immediate focus on the downside.



Strategy: The hypothetical long from 1267 was stopped out when the index fell below 1305 last week.

Next Update: Sun, 02/12/2012.





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