US Stock Indices - Medium-Term Outlook

In these updates our focus is to identify the trend on the weekly chart - the so-called Medium-Term (MT) trend (this trend usually lasts several months to a few years) and to formulate a hypothetical trading strategy that usually seeks for 150-300 point moves in the indexes risking 60-80 points. This analysis is updated once per month. If necessary, additional updates may be posted.

Nasdaq 100
S&P500

Main analysis

Update for: May

Posted on: Sunday, 29 April 2012 11:31

sp500 mt 20120429

S&P500: 1403.63

Medium-Term Trend: uptrend

Outlook:

S&P500 pulled back in April but found support well abv the 1340 key level and then rallied again in the last week of the month. Thus, the monstrous uptrend on the weekly chart remains intact. The market also remains overbought but that alone will not change the market trend. So, the main focus on this time frame continues to be on the upside and gains twd 1454 are still expected. In case, S&P500 has topped out already, it will likely spend some time going sideways above the 1355 level before it can start a big move lower. Only a move below 1355 will be a sign that wave B down has already started.

Strategy: Bullish as long as abv 1355.

Next Update: Fri, 06/01/2012.

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