Outlook for US Stock Indices

With the help of our methodology we try to define the trend on the hourly chart (Daily Outlook), daily chart (Short-Term Outlook) and weekly chart (Medium-Term Outlook) for two mostly watched by the investors US stock indices: Nasdaq 100 and S&P500.

Daily Outlook

In these updates our focus is to identify the trend on the hourly chart - the so-called very short-term (VST) trend (this trend usually lasts several days to a few weeks) and to formulate a hypothetical trading strategy that usually seeks for 40-80 point moves in Nasdaq100 risking 15-30 points and 25-50 point moves in S&P500 risking 10-20 points. This analysis is updated every day before the opening bell.

Short-Term Outlook

In these updates our focus is to identify the trend on the daily chart – the so-called Short-Term (ST) trend (this trend usually lasts several weeks to several months) and to formulate a hypothetical trading strategy that usually seeks for 80-140 point moves in Nasdaq100 risking 30-60 points and 50-90 point moves in S&P500 risking 25-40 points. This analysis is updated biweekly: before the open each Monday (usually during the weekends) and before the opening bell on Wednesdays.


Medium-Term Outlook

In these updates our focus is to identify the trend on the weekly chart – the so-called Medium-Term (MT) trend (this trend usually lasts several months to a few years) and to formulate a hypothetical  trading strategy that usually seeks for 200-400 point moves in Nasdaq100 risking 60-90 points and 100-200 point moves in S&P500 risking 50-75 points. This analysis is updated bimonthly. 

It is important to understand that we do not formulate trading strategies all the time. We try to act only when the chances of success are in our favor and when the risk/reward ratio is strongly favorable. That may result in missing out some big moves. We may have identified these big moves in our analyses, but may have decided not to formulate trading strategies for them because the odds of success have not been strongly in our favor.